The monthly Janna Mooney Report keeps you informed on current market trends and how they affect you.
January 2026
THE MAGICAL HEAT UP
The Orange County housing market starts slow at the beginning of every year. This year’s start is the slowest start to a year since 2019, yet the lower mortgage rate environment and improved affordability has the ability to jumpstart demand in 2026. There is a holiday hangover, and most everyone is still distracted with New Year’s resolutions. Over the next several weeks, after shaking off the holiday fog and leaving most resolutions behind, the housing market will magically heat up, seemingly overnight. The Holiday Market continues to run through mid-January. Housing will thaw and rapidly heat up by the end of January, as demand accelerates much faster than the supply of available homes.
This year is exceptionally chilly with the coldest start since 2019, when the expected market time (the number of days it takes to sell all listings at the current buying pace) reached 152 days. Today’s 85-day expected marketing time is reading is similar to 2017 (84 days), 2020 (82 days), and 2023 (84 days). The speed of the market is determined by supply and demand. Demand has not changed much over the past several years, ever since the Federal Reserve rapidly increased the Federal Funds Rate for 11 consecutive meetings between 2022 and 2023. Demand has been muted due to affordability constraints. The big annual difference in speed has come on the supply of listings side.
Many expect 2026 to be a similar story. There will be more homeowners selling this year and buyer demand will begin to thaw if mortgage rates remain between 6% and 6.5% over the Winter and Spring Markets (mid-January to beginning of June). The lower the rate, the larger the increase in year-over-year demand.
Today, mortgage rates have remained below 6.5% for 124 days since September 3rd, the longest period since the Federal Reserve finished raising the Federal Funds Rate in July 2023. Most housing economists project that rates will remain between 6% and 6.5% for the year, meaning that the lower mortgage rate environment will match up with the Winter and Spring Markets, allowing demand to improve due to increased affordability. That is assuming that the job market will remain weak and inflation does not suddenly spike higher. In fact, there is a case to be made that the job market may break in the coming months. If that occurs, the Federal Reserve will change its tune and indicate more rate cuts to come. Subsequently, mortgage rates would fall between 5.75% and 6%, and demand will rise even higher year-over-year.
BUYERS: Do NOT be fooled by the sluggish housing market at the start of the year. In January, the inventory will grow week over week ad buyer demand will grow at a faster pace. There will be increased competition among buyers, especially in the entry-level price range. The market will continue to pick up steam from now through mid-March. There are very few sellers who are desperate to sell, especially with the dawn of a new year and the anticipation of the Spring Market, the best time of the year to sell. Unlike post-holiday retail shopping, this is not the time of year to search for a “deal.”
SELLERS: Even if demand increases, it still boils down to proper pricing. Today’s buyers are savvy and understand value. They scrutinize every photo and soak in all the details: bedrooms, bathrooms, square footage, condition, upgrades, location, lot size, amenities, year built, garages, storage, view, etc. Yet, price is the most critical factor. It is the differentiator between a buyer choosing to see the home in person or waiting for the next home to hit the market. A realistic price will allow a seller to attract immediate interest. Sellers who overprice will waste valuable market time with far less activity before ultimately reducing. As the saying goes, you only get one shot at a first impression, so analyze every recent comparable pending and closed sale to properly arrive at an accurate price.
REALTOR LIFE
As the new year begins, I’m approaching it a little differently. Instead of piling on more commitments or letting the calendar fill itself, I’m being more conscious about creating quiet moments, building in rest, and saying no to the things I can control. My goal this year—both personally and professionally—is to be intentional about what I want, rather than letting the year carry me along in a wave of nonstop business.
On the real estate side, I’m optimistic. With interest rates lower than where we started 2025, affordability is improving, and I believe this creates real opportunity for both buyers and sellers. I’m looking forward to what I truly believe will be a great year ahead—one built on clarity, balance, and smart decisions.
I wish you a year where your intentions turn into reality, and your goals—both big and small—are fulfilled. And as always, if you, or any friends or family, need a trusted realtor this year, please keep me in mind; I’m committed to guiding every client with care, strategy, and exceptional service.
December 2025
HOT TO NOT - THE CONDO SHIFT
The typical meal at a fast-food restaurant used to cost $5 or $6. But over the past 10 years, prices have been rising faster than inflation. The cost of delivering a large hamburger and fries has skyrocketed due to much higher labor costs, persistent inflation, increased commodity prices, and relentless supply chain issues. The fast food meal has ballooned to $10 to $12 per meal. Fast food has suddenly become nearly as expensive as dining out. The allure of cost-effective fast-food dining out, compared to cooking at home, has lost its luster. Condos were long known as the “stepping stone” to owning a home, a much cheaper alternative to a detached house. They offered a more affordable option, along with amenities such as pools, spas, barbecues, fitness centers, and community centers. It was a lifestyle choice for the young, a pathway to owning a home with a white picket fence.
Yet, the cost of condos has soared, and their allure has lost its luster. The cost savings advantage of owning a condo has diminished over time. They still have a much lower sticker price compared to detached homes, but the other fees have skyrocketed. Higher maintenance, skyrocketing insurance premiums, and reserve fund issues have led to much higher Homeowner Association fees. These increased costs are absorbed in rising dues. The median monthly Homeowners Association fees for all attached sales in November were $502, and the median sales price was $810,000. For detached homes, the median Homeowners Association fees were $0 or at least half the cost of condos, and the median sales price was $1,400,000.
Many condominium complexes have not maintained sufficient reserves (not enough money saved for future major repairs, such as roofs, plumbing, and roads), leading to special assessments and increased dues. In addition, California adopted balcony inspection requirements in response to the tragic 2015 Berkeley 5-floor balcony collapse that killed six people and injured seven. It is an additional hurdle in the inspection process that can delay a closing and reduce a seller’s net proceeds. As a result of the higher costs, in many markets it is now taking longer to sell attached homes compared to detached houses. The inventory of attached homes is up 35% compared to last year, from 1,179 to 1,595 for sale. The condominium slowdown has arrived.
As is customary during the Holiday Market, the inventory is dropping at its fastest pace of the year. Since peaking in July the inventory has declined by 28%. It is December, when the fewest homes are placed on the market, with many sellers delisting their homes, pulling them off the market due to a lack of success and the desire to enjoy the holiday season. The inventory will continue to plummet until the ringing in of a New Year. It will then grow from day to day, week to week, in January, picking up steam by the third week of a fresh year.
REALTOR LIFE - From Remodel to Memories: Pausing to Enjoy the Season
As the year comes to a close, I want to wish you and your loved ones a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. I hope this season allows you time to pause, reflect, and enjoy meaningful moments with family and friends.
This time of year is always special to us. We continued one of my favorite traditions by hosting our annual friends’ Christmas party—friends we’ve shared life with for over 25 years. We also enjoyed hosting my husband’s fire station Christmas party, and we’re looking forward to hosting my brother visiting from New York and spending time with my parents, who will be visiting from Sweden - something we don’t take for granted.
Last year looked very different. We were in the middle of a year-and-a-half-long remodel, and our only holiday décor was a wreath on the scaffolding in the front of our home. This year, we’re soaking in all the warmth the holidays bring, enjoying decorations throughout our newly remodeled home. We are excited to host our families for Christmas with plenty of space for everyone to spread out and truly enjoy being together—a welcome change from our previous, much tighter layout.
While the holidays are a time to slow down, real estate continues to move. I’m opening escrows that will close in the new year, met with new clients planning to begin their home search after the holidays, and reconnecting with past clients preparing to sell in January and February. I look forward to what the new year will bring and incredibly grateful for the trust you place in me - whether you’re actively in the market or simply keeping an eye on it. Thank you for being part of my community and my Realtor life.
NOVEMBER 2025
Window of Opportunity
Right now, and for the remainder of the year, is a window of opportunity for buyers before the market heats up after the New Year, growing hotter as housing moves towards spring. With mortgage rates at their lowest levels in over a year, the housing supply up 18% from last year, and many homes still waiting for offers, it’s an excellent moment for buyers to make a move. Buying now will prove a wise decision, as the lower-rate environment is projected to continue into next year, fueling increased demand and a more competitive housing market in the coming spring. The current conditions are ideal. Mortgage rates dipped below 6.5% and are at their best level since September of last year. Buyer demand will decrease as the year draws to a close. Many homes have been on the market for months without success, and some sellers are more willing to negotiate.
If you have been thinking of buying don’t let this “window of opportunity” pass. Mortgage rates are projected to remain below 6.5% through the end of the year and into 2026. The favorable mortgage rate environment is poised to ignite spring demand, the busiest time of the year for housing. From mid-January through March, demand accelerates far faster than the rise in available inventory. The Orange County housing market is poised to heat up significantly, and buyers who delay may later regret missing the ideal moment to purchase… right now.
REALTOR LIFE -
Thanksgiving is not only a time to be grateful—it’s a reminder to pause and reflect in a world that seems to move faster every day. Taking time for ourselves has almost become obsolete, yet it’s more important than ever. In my fun, fast-paced world of real estate, I often forget to slow down and to appreciate the value of being truly present—with myself and with the people in my life. This year, I’m especially grateful for the chance to step away and celebrate Thanksgiving in New York with my brother and his girlfriend. Wishing you a Thanksgiving filled with gratitude, connection, and moments to pause and savor.
OCTOBER 2025
Today's Market Is Not Instant
Far too many sellers do not spend enough time carefully pricing their homes before coming on the market, and ultimately walk away with less money and take a lot longer to sell. It all boils down to price. The data illustrates a clear trend: the greater the price reduction, the lower the seller’s net proceeds and the longer the home remains on the market. When a homeowner initially comes on the market after pounding the FOR SALE sign in the yard, the home is fresh to the market. Yet, when a home is overpriced, it deters many buyers from making an offer or even touring the house. It sits on the market with waning activity. When the price is finally adjusted, it is not met with the same fanfare as when it initially came on the market. Instead, it is sold at a discount.
Too many sellers in Orange County are initially listing their properties at too high a price. They then have to adjust the asking price to secure a buyer willing to write a purchase offer. The data indicates that starting overpriced and then reducing it results in the seller walking away with less money. The sales price to last list price ratio is very revealing. This refers to the final list price before becoming an in escrow/pending sale. These are averages, meaning there are exceptions, but the overall trend is astonishing. In Orange County, 66% of all closed sales in September did not reduce the asking price. It was 80% in March. The sales price to last list price ratio for these homes was 98.4%, meaning, on average, a home appropriately priced sold close to its initial asking price. A house listed at $1 million sold for $984,000, $16,000 below the asking price. The median days on the market before becoming an in escrow/pending sale was only 16, indicating that accurate pricing also means considerably less time on the market.
It is revealing how 42% of all active listings have reduced the asking price at least once. Many sellers mistakenly expect a noticeable boost in showing activity after lowering the asking price. When a seller reduces the asking price, it is not met with the same level of anticipation and excitement as when it was initially placed on the market.
Today’s market is not instant. Sellers must price their home for success by scrutinizing every comparable pending and recent closed sale, carefully arriving at a home’s Fair Market Value.
REALTOR LIFE -
This past month, I had the honor of being featured in South Orange County Real Producers Magazine. The feature provided a glimpse into my life before real estate, shared what motivates me, and offered advice for new realtors. Ultimately, it highlighted that everything I do revolves around one central focus: helping my clients. I’m incredibly grateful for the opportunity to share my story, and I’m reminded every day that the heart and passion I put into serving my clients is what truly drives me.
SEPTEMBER 2025
Lower Rates & Higher Demand
The lowest mortgage rates of the year are paving the way for a much different Fall Market with a falling inventory, increasing demand, and declining market times. Rates have slowly made their way from just over 7% for the first couple of months of the year to nearly 6.25% today, paving the way for a bump in buyer demand.
Mortgage rates tend to fluctuate from week to week, yet the trend has been for rates to improve slowly from month to month. They dropped below 6.75% at the start of August, and then dropped below 6.5% at the beginning of September. With weaker job numbers, they have settled close to 6.25%.
These lower mortgage rates have arrived just as the housing market transitioned from the Summer Market to the Fall Market. In real estate, the Fall Market spans from the beginning of September and runs through mid-November, the week before Thanksgiving. Typically, in Orange County, this is the time of year when the supply of available homes slowly decreases, along with a corresponding slow decline in buyer demand. With both supply and demand falling at a similar pace, the expected market time does not change much.
Lower mortgage rates will improve affordability, and should fuel an increase in buyer demand. It appears that rates will remain below 6.5% for several months, a period significantly longer than last year’s brief reprieve from the higher mortgage rate environment. The inventory is already slowly falling and demand rising, therefore, the expected market time is should decrease as well. The Fall Market will be a turning point for the Orange County housing market. The longer rates remain below 6.5%, the more pronounced the change.
REALTOR LIFE - A Season of Balancing Both Sides
What am I experiencing with my clients this month? I’m seeing both sellers and buyers navigating this market with a lot of thoughtfulness. My sellers are motivated, but they know pricing too high can stall momentum, so we’re having deeper conversations about strategy—everything from setting the right list price to making small updates or staging their home that help their home stand out. On the buyer side, clients are still very much engaged but more cautious, weighing affordability closely and watching interest rates to see where things might head. Some are willing to wait for the perfect home, while others are prepared to move quickly when the right opportunity comes along. Focusing on the interest rate is not necessarily the right strategy as compared to finding the right house. For me, this season is really about balancing both sides—guiding sellers to position their homes for success while helping buyers see the possibilities in front of them. It’s a market that requires patience, education, and steady communication, and I’m grateful to be walking alongside my clients as they make these important decisions. If you are considering to sell your home or make a purchase reach out, I’d love to help you!
