The monthly Janna Mooney Report keeps you informed on current market trends and how they affect you.
SEPTEMBER 2025
Lower Rates & Higher Demand
The lowest mortgage rates of the year are paving the way for a much different Fall Market with a falling inventory, increasing demand, and declining market times. Rates have slowly made their way from just over 7% for the first couple of months of the year to nearly 6.25% today, paving the way for a bump in buyer demand.
Mortgage rates tend to fluctuate from week to week, yet the trend has been for rates to improve slowly from month to month. They dropped below 6.75% at the start of August, and then dropped below 6.5% at the beginning of September. With weaker job numbers, they have settled close to 6.25%.
These lower mortgage rates have arrived just as the housing market transitioned from the Summer Market to the Fall Market. In real estate, the Fall Market spans from the beginning of September and runs through mid-November, the week before Thanksgiving. Typically, in Orange County, this is the time of year when the supply of available homes slowly decreases, along with a corresponding slow decline in buyer demand. With both supply and demand falling at a similar pace, the expected market time does not change much.
Lower mortgage rates will improve affordability, and should fuel an increase in buyer demand. It appears that rates will remain below 6.5% for several months, a period significantly longer than last year’s brief reprieve from the higher mortgage rate environment. The inventory is already slowly falling and demand rising, therefore, the expected market time is should decrease as well. The Fall Market will be a turning point for the Orange County housing market. The longer rates remain below 6.5%, the more pronounced the change.
REALTOR LIFE - A Season of Balancing Both Sides
What am I experiencing with my clients this month? I’m seeing both sellers and buyers navigating this market with a lot of thoughtfulness. My sellers are motivated, but they know pricing too high can stall momentum, so we’re having deeper conversations about strategy—everything from setting the right list price to making small updates or staging their home that help their home stand out. On the buyer side, clients are still very much engaged but more cautious, weighing affordability closely and watching interest rates to see where things might head. Some are willing to wait for the perfect home, while others are prepared to move quickly when the right opportunity comes along. Focusing on the interest rate is not necessarily the right strategy as compared to finding the right house. For me, this season is really about balancing both sides—guiding sellers to position their homes for success while helping buyers see the possibilities in front of them. It’s a market that requires patience, education, and steady communication, and I’m grateful to be walking alongside my clients as they make these important decisions. If you are considering to sell your home or make a purchase reach out, I’d love to help you!
AUGUST 2025
Will Prices Plunge?
There are three indicators to look for in determining when home prices will drop sharply, but only one of them is currently present. The three Indicators are a surplus of homes available for purchase, a weak demand, and an elevated number of distressed homes, including foreclosures and short sales that will collectively signal the next plunge in home values. Many people argue that housing is due for a correction. Their rationale is that home prices surged at an unprecedented rate from 2020 through the first half of 2022. When mortgage rates jumped from 3.25% in January 2022 to 7.37% nine months later in October, home affordability plummeted to historically low levels. Affordability is based on household incomes, mortgage rates, and home values. Since household incomes have not skyrocketed, and mortgage rates have bounced around 7% for nearly three years, the natural conclusion is that prices must plunge to improve affordability. Many have exclaimed that they feel it in their “gut,” that it is not a matter of if prices correct, it is when. Economics does not adhere to intuition or a “gut” feeling. Instead, it is best to turn to the facts, data, and current trendlines.
TODAY'S MARKET:
Supply of Available Homes: Despite many more sellers competing against each other, supply is still constrained compared to where it was leading up to and during the Great Recession.
Buyer Demand: Mortgage rates have been stuck above 6% for three years, and buyer demand has been muted ever since.
Distressed Homes: There have been very few distressed home sales for years now, and it is not going to change anytime soon.
The Bottom Line: Only one of the three indicators for prices to plunge is present in today’s housing market, muted demand. There must be considerable additional pressure for prices to fall substantially, not just low demand. A glut of available homes, along with unemotional distressed sellers who “have to sell,” and weak demand are the necessary ingredients for housing to experience a correction. Prices will not plunge solely due to weak demand.
REALTOR LIFE
Thanks to my reliable team holding down the fort, I was able to step away from the hustle of daily real estate life for a family getaway to Mammoth. My parents flew in from Sweden, my brother and his girlfriend from New York and my other brother, his wife and my nieces who live nearby. It was the ideal blend of adventure and relaxation – days filled with hiking scenic trails, discovering crystal-clear lakes, fishing, bike rides, horseback riding, and breathing in fresh mountain air, and nights filled enjoying good food and playing games. The mountains have a way of nourishing the soul and I am grateful for the quality time away.
JULY 2025
At A Crossroads
There are many crossroads in life where a single decision can take someone down a completely new path. Whether it’s choosing a career, getting married, or moving to a new city, each decision shapes a unique and distinct future.
The second half of 2025 stands at a crossroads, where the pathway of mortgage rates will result in two vastly different outcomes. Will mortgage rates remain elevated, or will they fall below 6.5% with duration? The housing market is at the mercy of rates.
So, where does the housing market go from here? It all depends on rates. There are two scenarios:
Scenario 1 – Rates remain elevated and continue to fluctuate between 6.5% and 7% for the remainder of the year. For this to happen, the expected market time will slowly rise from week to week. Demand will gradually decline slowly to end of the year, inventory will slowly climb until it reaches a peak. For mortgage rates to remain where they stand today, the economic data must continue to be similar to that of the first half of 2025. Financial market volatility persists due to ongoing tariff announcements, while strong labor market readings continue, characterized by solid job growth and low unemployment rates. Any rise in inflation due to the implementation of tariffs will keep a lid on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Scenario 2 – Rates drop and hover between 6% and 6.5% with duration. For this to happen the U.S. economy must show signs of a looming slowdown. As the Federal Reserve monitors job market any cracks in labor will lead to immediate cuts. Last year in early August rates dropped below 6.5% for 47 consecutive days which increased demand 14%. If rates follow similar pattern to last year and remain the rest of the year demand will increase. The biggest difference between last year and this year is the higher inventory. This would cause the inventory to peak earlier than in the first scenario. With fewer available homes and higher demand, the days on market would decrease, and the housing market would improve from week to week. Home values would stabilize and potentially rise monthly by the end of the year.
The Orange County housing market is at a crossroads. The speed of the market depends entirely on the direction of mortgage rates, which hinges on the direction of the U.S. economy.
REALTOR LIFE
While the market is undeniably at a crossroads, the Orange County real estate scene is still very much in motion. From what I’m seeing on the ground, homes are selling, but buyers have become more cautious, closely watching whether mortgage rates will hold steady or finally begin to dip. Inventory remains modest, which helps maintain competition, but open houses are noticeably less frenzied than earlier this year. Sellers who price their homes realistically are securing solid offers often at or above market value, while those chasing peak prices are seeing longer days on market and, ultimately, lower returns. Buyers frequently ask, “Should I wait to see if rates fall by fall?” My answer: No. Entering the market should be based on affordability, not speculation. We saw this in 2020; many buyers paused hoping prices would drop, but they missed out on opportunities and never saw 3% rates again. A pause doesn’t guarantee anything; taking action when the numbers make sense is key.
