The monthly Janna Mooney Report keeps you informed on current market trends and how they affect you.
A DIFFERENT VELOCITY
Commuters know precisely how long it takes to get to work. They wake up at the same time. They get ready, eat breakfast, and jump in their cars in a timely, habitual rhythm. That is, until the day when their commute is disrupted by bumper-to-bumper traffic due to a brand new construction project with signs exclaiming that it will not be complete for a little over a year. It now takes much longer to arrive at work, so everyone has to recalibrate the commute and prepare by adjusting their morning routine to accommodate the extra time in the car.
The Orange County housing market is experiencing more traffic with extra FOR SALE signs and only slightly better buyer demand. The result is a much slower market that nobody had been anticipating. Today’s housing market is much different than the hot markets from 2020 through 2024. It is taking longer to sell. Sellers need to recalibrate their expectations and spend more time preparing their homes for sale and methodically and carefully determining their list price; the Fair Market Value of their home.
The market is slower in matching the higher inventory with anemic, low demand. In Orange County the Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell at the current buying pace) is an average of 61 days, its highest level since 2019. Last year, it was 40 days, three weeks faster than today. In 2023, it was 44 days, also significantly quicker.
The current trend is for the active listing inventory to continue to grow. It will grow at an even faster velocity during the Spring Market. As spring progresses, the number of homes coming on the market will outpace demand, and the Expected Market Time will rise. The only caveat is if rates continue to fall. Mortgage rates were stuck above 7% from mid-December through mid-February. Yet, with economic growth slowing, according to Mortgage News Daily, rates have dropped to 6.74% to start March, their lowest level since the start of December. If they fall further with duration, demand levels could rise. As a result, the Expected Market Time would not climb at a slower pace.
Nonetheless, today’s housing market is much slower than many have become accustomed to. Orange County housing is far from instant. A traffic jam is forming with a much higher active listing inventory and more sellers coming on the market each month.
REALTOR LIFE
PRINCIPAL FOR THE DAY
Supporting the community where I live has always been an important key component of my business. After 15 years of supporting the annual Jog-a-Thon, Carnival, and Trunk or Treat at Melinda Heights Elementary, I was deeply honored to be invited to serve as Principal for the Day. I had the wonderful opportunity to visit each classroom, engage with the students and learn about all the special programs offered. I also enjoyed lunch at the district with MHES Principal Wendie Hauschild, Saddleback Unified School District Superintendent, and board members. Thank you to SVUSD for having me!
A WINTER THAW
Going to an amusement park as soon as it opens is a considerable advantage. There are no crowds and the most popular rides have no line for those willing to scramble to the queue as quickly as possible. Yet, in the blink of an eye, the park is filled with people, and the wait times for everyone’s favorite rides grow longer by the minute. By late morning, the swarm of people is dizzying, and it’s the busiest time of the day.
That’s how the Winter Market feels for housing. Traditionally, the Winter Market runs from mid-January through mid-March. In mid-March, housing transitions to the busiest time of the year, the Spring Market. The winter thaw for Orange County housing has already begun to quickly thaw, ramp up, and grow hotter from week to week. The season is characterized by the inventory increasing, buyer demand surging higher, and the days on the market dropping.
The active inventory (supply of available homes) increases slightly as many homes that come on the market especially those priced right and in excellent turn-key condition are snapped up quickly, and many times with multiple offers. These homes promptly become pending sales, accumulate, and add to the overall demand reading. As a result, the inventory has trouble growing as the number of pending sales surge. If you are thinking of buying don’t wait until summer when buyer competition is high and if you are a seller thinking of selling, spring market is ideal with less homes on the market resulting in less competition.
REALTOR LIFE
Thankful & Grateful – Top 2%
To enjoy what you do and be rewarded in 2024 as the Top 2% within Coldwell Banker Internationally is extremely rewarding. Thank you to my clients and friends for their trust, loyalty, and referrals. Your business drives my business forward, allowing me to grow and achieve new heights. Every home sale is meaningful as I establish new relationships, and value my client’s confidence in my expertise fueling my commitment. Your stories, dreams, and investments inspire me to go above and beyond. I always strive to provide exceptional service, personalized experience, and continued support to my clients even after closing. A heartfelt thank you and appreciation. My success continues to be built on my client’s belief in me and my team, and for that, I am truly grateful. Thank you!
A DULL KICKOFF
The supply level may be low, but it is much higher than last year and is matched up against very little demand. The market will take a few weeks to heat up. It takes a while for buyers and potential sellers to shake off the holiday fog that consumes everyone. The Holiday Market continues to run through mid-January, when nearly everyone gives up on their New Year’s resolutions. Housing will thaw by the end of January, and the warmth will return.
This year’s start is similar to many prior years. It is not as slow as some, but certainly not as instant as 2021 and 2022. Last year was a much hotter start with a very limited number of available homes. The 2025 kickoff is different because of a buildup in inventory. The buildup is a direct result of the higher mortgage rate environment. Demand was muted due to affordability constraints. Mortgage rates were stuck above 7% for the better part of last year, throughout the entire Spring Market and most of the Summer Market. The 7% mortgage rate is a psychological barrier to the housing market. It prevents many buyers from pulling the trigger on a home. If rates remain elevated just under 7%, expect a substantially slower Winter Market, from mid-January through mid-March, than last year.
REALTOR LIFE
A New Year Is Upon Us & I Am Here To Help
A new year is upon us! The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Each new year is a journey, and this week is your first step: Don’t worry about the entire path ahead – just focus on moving forward, one step at a time. Every small action compounds into bigger results. Step back and make a plan as to what your first step will be. Cheers to 2025 and what we will all make of it!
In the meantime, if you, a friend or family member is looking to make a move this year or simply want to investigate your options, I am here to help guide you one step at a time.
